Sage
Newsletter, March 15
Dear Readers,
I’ve been thinking over the past couple of weeks about one of my favourite books of the 2010s, Harvard Professor Graham Allison’s instant classic, Destined for War, which was born out of an influential 2015 article in The Atlantic. Professor Allison was something of a Henry Kissinger protégé at Harvard, a leading scholar of Great Power rivalry through the lens of the Cuban missile crisis and dean of the Kennedy School of Government in the 1970s and 1980s. Like his mentor, Allison hardly kept himself confined to ivory towers, serving five Republican and Democrat administrations in Washington.
The subtitle of Destined for War captures its essence: ‘Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?’ The thesis was born out of concern that the rise of China as a Great Power might ultimately precipitate a war with the reining hegemon, the United States – just as had occurred when the rise of Athens threatened the established power of Sparta led to the Peloponnesian Wars, as exquisitely chronicled by the Athenian general and historian, Thucydides. Allison oversaw research into 16 instances of such power shifts over the past 500 years, three quarters of which resulted in war.
In 2019, I invited Prof. Allison to Ottawa as the keynote at the Public Policy Forum’s annual Fall Dinner. He discussed how Canada could manage its relationship with both superpowers while protecting its own economic interests and sovereignty. He perceptively suggested we prepare ourselves for “unreasonable demands” from both sides and try to position ourselves diplomatically as a useful conduit. Allison did not accept the inevitability of war between China and the United States. After all, even the bitter rivalry between the U.S. and Soviet Union, while coming close to conflict in the Cuban Missile Crisis, had been managed to remain a cold war.
I’ve been thinking about the book because of the apparent careless strategic calculations going into the U.S. attack on Iran. Wars don’t just happen. They are generally the product of ill-informed and poorly considered decisions.
The publication of The Atlantic article coincided with a 2015 state visit to the U.S. by Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader directly addressed Allison’s thesis in a speech in Seattle, saying: “There is no such thing as the so-called Thucydides Trap in the world. But should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves.”
Policymaker beware! History is replete with leadership miscalculations, the First World War topping the charts. U.S. miscalculation of Iran’s response to attack (or perhaps the absence of calculation) puts the world on an even darker path. Countries like Canada need to think about how we can minimize our exposure and how we can contribute to a more calculated and peaceful world.
Which brings me to Sage this week, particularly the Sage podcast, where a discussion takes place of Canada’s place in the world. I was struck by the similarities some panellists saw between Mark Carney’s international preparations for office and those of Lester Pearson, the life-long diplomat turned 1960s Prime Minister.
Also this week:
Dan Ciuriak fills us in on the meaning of capitulation in financial markets and whether geo-economic policies toward the United States are approaching that decisive point.
Chris Ragan reviews Mark Carney’s first year as PM through an economic prism of slumping Canadian living standards and low capital investment; the affordability crisis; diversification of Canada’s international trade; and our significantly increased defence spending.
Peter Nicholson returns to last week’s fiscal policy conversation and puts it into its fascinating historical context.
BTW, as Sage begins to settle into patterns, we have decided to release this weekly summary on Sundays. Please keep an eye out, please subscribe, please let others know.
Edward Greenspon
